In The News

Ockham in the LA Times

latimes.com

Wesley Bush is steering Northrop Grumman in a new direction

In the six months since Wesley Bush’s first day as CEO, and with this week’s announcement that he may abandon the shipbuilding business, military giant Northrop Grumman has become a very different company.

By W.J. Hennigan, Los Angeles Times

July 16, 2010

latimes.com

Once taking the helm of Northrop Grumman Corp. in January, Wesley G. Bush hasn’t wasted any time shaking up one of the world’s largest military contractors.
On his first day on the job, Bush made a stunning announcement that he was moving Northrop’s headquarters out of Los Angeles — where the company has been since it was founded in 1939 — to the Washington area.

He then pulled Northrop out of the Pentagon’s $35-billion aerial refueling tanker competition, shuffled top executives and this week announced he was looking at abandoning the company’s $6-billion-a-year shipbuilding business.

The moves have analysts wondering whether Bush is dismantling a military juggernaut built up by predecessors Kent Kresa and Ronald Sugar.

“The decision to explore strategic alternatives for shipbuilding should not be interpreted as an indication that we are dismantling the company,” Bush said in an e-mail, adding that he might separate Northrop from the shipbuilding business because it didn’t fit with the rest of the company.

But to Loren Thompson, a military policy analyst for the Lexington Institute in Virginia, “Northrop Grumman is a very different company than it was six months ago. Wes Bush is determined to transform the business and culture of Northrop any way he can,” he said.

Since the mid-1990s, Kresa and then Sugar acquired nearly two dozen companies with interests in virtually every aspect of the U.S. military, including building spy satellites and nuclear submarines, managing websites and protecting computer systems against hackers. Northrop Grumman grew from a billion-dollar company on the verge of bankruptcy to a $34-billion behemoth.

But in a conference call Wednesday, Bush said he was closing its shipyard in Avondale, La., near New Orleans, and that the company could get out of the shipbuilding business altogether.

“Going forward we perceive little synergy between shipbuilding and our other businesses,” he said.

Bush, 49, is moving Northrop away from building traditional military hardware, such as massive warships, to developing more high-tech products, such as cyber security and unmanned systems.

Northrop’s largest sector for cyber security work, Information Systems, hires about 4,000 people a year. The company specializes in encryption technology used by U.S. intelligence agencies that could be applied to protecting valuable data.

“He sees Northrop as a company that will lead the way in cutting-edge electronics and information systems,” Thompson said. “That vision does not include industrial metal-bending in shipyards.”

The move to close the Avondale facility came amid the prospects of a slowdown in Pentagon spending on large weapons systems, such as tanks and warships. Last year, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates proposed a plan to cut major weapons developments worth as much as $330 billion. And in February, the U.S. Navy canceled the planned purchase of two amphibious ships that were to be built at the Avondale shipyard.

The facility employs about 5,000 people. Production will cease in 2013 and operations will be consolidated with the company’s Pascagoula, Miss., shipyard about 125 miles away.

Northrop currently builds transport and amphibious assault ships at both locations. So consolidating ship construction on the Gulf Coast will reduce costs and increase efficiency, Bush said.

“He’s demonstrated that he’s not afraid to be bold in his leadership,” said Ned Douthat, an analyst at Ockham Research, an equity research firm. “It’s not popular right now to take 5,000 jobs away from the Louisiana coast. But it’s the right move for the company, and it provides the most value to shareholders.”

Since 2008, the company has taken more than $430 million in charges against earnings because of delays caused by Hurricane Katrina and production problems.

Northrop picked up the Gulf Coast shipyards in 2001 as part of the acquisition of Litton Industries Inc. Litton had a considerable military electronics business, which appealed to then-CEO Kresa; the two yards came as part of the deal.

Paul H. Nesbit, an aerospace analyst with JSA Research Inc. in Sarasota, Fla., said the main objective of the Litton deal was to expand the electronics business and to acquire some members of Litton’s management team. Shipbuilding was an afterthought.

“Northrop seemed to fall into shipbuilding,” he said. “It never really fit with the rest of Northrop. It operated like a separate company altogether.”

Later in 2001, Northrop bought Newport News Shipbuilding Inc., which builds nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers, to spoil a bid by rival General Dynamics Corp. to become the nation’s largest military shipbuilder.

The ship business accounted for about 18% of Northrop’s revenue last year, which leaves a sizable hole on balance sheets, said Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

“Traditionally, shipbuilding is not the type of business that’s going to grow exponentially year over year, but it’s not going to diminish very much either,” he said. “It’s a steady stream of revenue because there aren’t that many big shipbuilders in this country.”

General Dynamics is the only other major competitor in the ship business. If General Dynamics makes a bid to buy the shipbuilding business unit from Northrop, the Pentagon has a dilemma on its hands.

“It’s something we’re going to watch closely,” said Cmdr. Victor Chen, a Navy spokesman. “We want to make sure there’s adequate competition in the marketplace.”

Bush put the government in another precarious position in March when he pulled Northrop out of the race for a $35-billion Pentagon contract to build aerial refueling tankers. At the time, he left Northrop’s rival in the competition, Boeing Co., as the sole bidder for one of the largest military contracts in U.S. history because he said the specifications dramatically favored Boeing.

Northrop had been seeking to win the contract since 2007, when it teamed up with Airbus parent European Aeronautic Defense & Space Co.

Northrop spent about $200 million to capture the contract and won, but the decision was later overturned after the Government Accountability Office found that the U.S. Air Force failed to credit Boeing for some of the plane’s capabilities.

After the Pentagon relaunched the competition earlier this year and laid out new specifications in late February, it took just two weeks before Bush said the company wasn’t going to pursue the contract. To him, it wasn’t worth spending money to go after a contract that seemed all but destined to go to Boeing.

With a series of aggressive moves, Bush has shown a real contrast with the leadership of the past, said Rebecca Grant, president of IRIS Independent Research, a military and aerospace consulting firm. Past chief executive transfers of power at Northrop have been rather customary, she said. But Bush has taken the company in a new direction from the start.

“Wes Bush is not hung up on the Northrop Grumman of the past,” Grant said. “Time will tell about his judgment. But I think you have to give him credit for making the tough moves early on.”

william.hennigan@latimes.com

Copyright © 2010, The Los Angeles Times

Ockham in Information Week

Cisco Stock: 4 Reasons It’s Not Reflecting Blowout Quarter

Posted by Bob Evans on May 14, 2010 10:46 AM

CEO John Chambers says Cisco just had “probably the strongest quarter in our history” and given that storied history, that’s a remarkable perspective. But investors have been pooh-poohing Cisco shares, which have actually even fallen a bit: do they know something CIOs should know? Here are four possible explanations from a great equity-research firm.

Ockham Research has a strong following among traders and I’ve found their analyses of tech-company strengths and weaknesses to be unusually insightful. Ockham has posted a brief analysis of the Cisco disconnect onseekingalpha.com, and I’ve culled out four factors Ockham cites as potential causes for the mismatch between Cisco’s blowout performance and the lousy stock performance since then.

Bear in mind that Ockham is not taking the position that these are in fact the causes for the disconnect; rather, these four points represent their best effort to make some sense out of a situation that seems to make no sense. If it seems that the analysis is stretching a bit thin, that’s more a reflection of the bizarre share performance than it is of Ockham’s analytical capabilities.

1) “Perhaps the earnings whispers are to blame for the sell-off.” Yes, possible—but coming off “the strongest quarter in our history,” Cisco is also predicting huge growth for its next quarter, matching or significantly ahead of analysts’ projections.

2) “[Perhaps] . . . positive earnings surprises from other tech bellwethers made this report just par for the course.” Yes, some other tech companies have shown strong results, but none has matched Cisco’s 27% revenue growth and a comparable spike in profits.

3) “The quarter did include an extra 14th week, a rarity that may provide one possible explanation for the strong results.” Right, except for that equally bullish projection for the next quarter, which has no extra 14th week.

4) “The question investors must ask themselves is, does this best in class company not command a premium?” Perhaps some investors feel it doesn’t—but in a market that’s been desperately seeking growth, Cisco’s performance will be hard for competitors to match let alone exceed.

Ockham’s diligent attempt to find some chinks in the Cisco armor reveals just how strong the company’s performance actually was, and it also sheds some very encouraging light on the still-murky issue of whether CIO-level tech spending is back to encouraging levels.

As Ockham said, “Growth has returned to Cisco and, as its CEO will attest, they are hitting on all cylinders. . . . There is no doubt Cisco is a cash generating machine right now and operations appear only to be getting stronger as they provide the pipes for the Internet.”

Ockham Featured on Daily Finance

If You Can Forget About the Spill, BP Could Be a Buy

By BETSY SCHIFFMANPosted 3:45 PM 05/04/10 

As British energy company BP (BP) struggles with one of the worst ecological, financial and PR challenges in recent history, its shares have been royally pummeled.

The sell-off of BP began on April 21, the day after a BP-operated oil rig caught fire in the Gulf of Mexico, which eventually led to a spill so large, it’s expected to exceed the Exxon Valdez spill of 1989. Thus far, the stock has lost 17% of its value, dropping to to $50.19 (Monday’s closing price), down from $60.48 on April 20.

There are plenty of reasons why investors should avoid BP: It’s not clear how much the company will have to pay in damages (estimates range anywhere from $3 billion to $15 billion), nor is it clear when the stock is going to bottom out. Wall Street is relentlessly negative on it. In fact, two banks, Argus and Benchmark, have downgraded the stock since the spill started.

Too Many Unknown Variables

Argus analyst Philip Weiss cut his rating on the stock to hold primarily because of all of the unknown variables.

“We know that . . . BP’s stock recovered 19% and outperformed the market and the sector following the Texas City refinery fire in 2005,” Weiss says in a note to clients. (The Texas City refinery fire of 2005 was also at a BP-owned facility and resulted in 15 fatalities.) “However, we also think the level of environmental awareness and scrutiny is much greater now than it was at the time of those earlier accidents,” he says.

But it may not be the end of the world for the company previously called British Petroleum. BP’s response to the spill has been aggressive, by most accounts. The work on the relief well, which is meant to stop the spill, began on Sunday, so the company is working toward a solution. And some environmentalists even think the net result of the spill may not be as badas Exxon Valdez.

Years of Legal Wrangling to Come

It could also be years of legal wrangling before the courts decide who is responsible for the accident. Right now, BP argues that it should be held responsible for clean-up costs, but that Transocean (RIG), which owned the equipment, is ultimately responsible for the accident. Even if the courts decide BP must pay for the whole shebang, it could be a long time before the company drops a dime to cover the disaster.

There are plenty of technical reasons why BP may look like a buy right now, too.

“Both price-to-sales and price-to-cash earnings are very nearly at the low end of the historically normal range for BP,” says Ned Douthat, head equity analyst at Ockham Research. “This valuation is likely appropriate given the huge downside potential given the cost of the spill. But if an investor wants to hold onto a stock for a long time, they could do worse than BP with a yield approaching 7%,” Douthat wrote in an email.

Although Douthat doesn’t think the risks associated with the spill are built into the stock yet, the price is starting to “become appealing in spite of the risk.” Similarly, Philip Weiss of Argus said he would consider buying BP again if shares fell below $50.

Ockham in The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Harley says it must cut $54 million in local manufacturing costs

By Rick Barrett of the Journal Sentinel

Posted: April 29, 2010 |(294) Comments

Determined to slash manufacturing costs, Harley-Davidson Inc. says its Wisconsin factories could be in jeopardy if belt-tightening measures aren’t successful.

Would the iconic company really stop making “Milwaukee Iron” in factories not far from the shed where Bill Harley and Arthur Davidson built their first motorcycles in 1903?

Thursday, Harley executives said there were significant “cost gaps” that must be filled at the plants in Menomonee Falls and Tomahawk that, combined, employ more than 1,400 people.

Employees were told that Harley wants to slash $54 million a year in costs from its manufacturing here.

“Our preference is to keep the production operations in Wisconsin, but as part of due diligence we will also explore alternate U.S. sites” if necessary, company spokesman Bob Klein told the Journal Sentinel.

Union officials worry that Harley is following the same strategy it used last year in York, Pa., where about half of the production employees lost their jobs as the result of cost reductions. Under duress, the International Association of Machinists accepted a seven-year contract in York that eliminated nearly 1,000 jobs but kept the York factory from being moved to Kentucky.

Since January 2009, Harley has announced the closing of two factories and a distribution center. The company also has announced cuts totaling about 25% of its workforce – at least 2,700 hourly workers and 840 administrative employees.

The restructuring has come as sales and profits have plummeted. As recently as 2006, Harley had a profit of $1 billion, compared with a $55 million loss in 2009.

In Wisconsin, “We are looking at labor costs and operational flexibility as some of the key areas where cost gaps exist,” Klein said.

The company’s contract with its largest union here, the United Steelworkers, expires March 31, 2012. Management has not asked to reopen the contract, but union members say they could be asked to accept concessions or face plant closures and the loss of work to nonunion plants.

“If you look at the York contract, the company went after health care benefits and work rule changes. It was a pretty crappy deal,” said Mike Masik, president of Steelworkers Local 2-209 in Milwaukee.

Decisions by fall

Decisions about the Wisconsin operations will be made by the fall, according to the company.

Union officials say they’re tired of companies’ threatening to move if they can’t get wage and benefit concessions. But they also could not imagine Harley-Davidson closing its factories in Menomonee Falls and Tomahawk.

Workers here represent “the heart and soul of the company,” Masik said.

In November 2006, Local 2-209 members agreed to accept lower wages for new employees, and other concessions, in exchange for the company’s promise to invest about $120 million and create more jobs at the Menomonee Falls plant.

State officials also offered Harley state income tax credits if the company invested at least $300 million in its expansions and created at least 200 additional full-time jobs in the state by 2010.

Kentucky and Indiana vied to get the York plant by offering millions of dollars in incentives.

“It’s a ruthless formula pitting one desperate state against another,” said Frank Larkin, spokesman for the International Association of Machinists, which represents some Harley workers in York and Milwaukee.

“The state that gets a plant has to provide so much in incentives that the value of getting them is lost,” Larkin said. “And if you are expecting the benefits of higher wages in your community, you lose that because nonunion states pay people $14 per hour instead of $28 per hour.”

Stock analysts say Harley-Davidson must slash costs to remain viable and protect shareholders’ interests. Revenue has plummeted while expenses have remained flat, said analyst Ned Douthat of Ockham Research.

“That is why investors are eager to see more cost-cutting. And one of the clearest ways to do that is to go after labor costs,” Douthat said. “It’s not something you want to hear if you work at Harley-Davidson, but it’s a reality of where the business is.”

Political overtones

The issue quickly took on political overtones, with Republican Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker pointing a critical finger at Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and Gov. Jim Doyle, both Democrats.

A spokesman for Doyle said the governor will work with Harley to make sure it remains competitive and stays in Wisconsin.

But Walker blamed Barrett and Doyle for tax credits given to a Spanish manufacturer of wind-turbine generators, Ingeteam, for its project in the Menomonee Valley, while he said Wisconsin’s tax policies are driving jobs away.

In turn, Barrett and former Congressman Mark Neumann, a Republican, both said they had called Harley-Davidson directly and offered their help.

In a statement, Barrett dismissed Walker’s comment, saying Wisconsin needs “adult leadership” in tough economic times. “What we don’t need is politicians who attack companies that are actually bringing jobs to Wisconsin, just to score cheap points,” Barrett’s statement said.

Neumann said he wants Harley to hold off until the state elects a new governor who can create a better business environment. Neumann also said he supports economic assistance if the money spent on a company will generate a bigger payback.

Barrett, Neumann and Walker all are running for governor.

Other politicians also released statements expressing concern that Harley may move its Wisconsin factories.

“Democrats passed a new tax on certain flagship companies in Wisconsin once they gained complete control of state government. That new tax cost an already struggling Harley-Davidson $22.5 million during the worst recession in generations,” said Assembly Minority Leader Jeff Fitzgerald (R-Horicon).

Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan (D-Janesville) said he would work with Doyle to keep Harley in Wisconsin.

“Harley-Davidson is a staple in this state,” Sheridan said. “We’re going to do everything we can to keep them right here.”

Lee Bergquist of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report.

Ockham Featured in Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian

Pessimism Plagues PulteGroup, Inc., Despite Hopeful Housing Stats

Posted on 4/27/2010 2:32 PM

Publication: “Forbes”
Publication title: “If You Don’t Own Home Builders, Don’t Buy Them”
Publication Date: 4/23/2010

KeyWords: PHM

Brief Summary:

This Forbes article cites Ockham Research Chief Equity Analyst Ned Douthat, who concedes that housing data has been optimistic of late, but warns that homebuilders – like PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) – are “overvalued.” In fact, the analyst claims that homebuilder stocks “are among the fundamentally weakest in the market,” and argues that their appreciating value is due to the fact that they were “so badly beaten down,” as opposed to bona fide fundamental strength.

Meanwhile, Douthat cautions that for-sale signs are still plaguing the market. According to the National Association of Realtors, there are an estimated 3.58 million homes still available for sale – equivalent to roughly eight months worth of supply. What’s more, the analyst says that “as the markets improve, banks may start listing more of their foreclosed properties,” which could “further misalign supply and demand,” and eventually lower prices.

Furthermore, Douthat warns that the expiration of the first-time homebuyers’ tax credit could deflate home sales in the next few months. As such, the analyst recommends staying away from homebuilders that are heavily tied to residential construction, despite the “bullish data” of late.

Ockham Featured in the Financial Post

J&J offers rare margin of safety in current market

Posted: April 20, 2010, 4:55 PM by Jonathan Ratner

Johnson & Johnson has underperformed the market in recent months and lowered its outlook for earnings on Tuesday, but it is still a value investor’s best friend, according to Ockham Research (Hat tip: Seeking Alpha).

Ockham recommends that disappointed investors view the numbers for the health care giant in context. For instance, J&J is trading for about 12 times its cash earnings. Its price-to-sale ratio is only 2.8. Both those numbers are well below its averages over the past decade.

Ockham thinks J&J should be trading for at least US$73 a share, well above the current US$66.

“That kind of margin of safety is difficult to find in the currently overheated market,” says Ockham.

It argues that, with a 3% dividend yield and the potential for double-digit gains, J&J represents a fine roosting place for anyone nervous about today’s market.

Freelance business journalist Ian McGugan blogs for the Financial Post

Ockham in The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Harley may be takeover target

Rumors generate boost in stock price, trade volume

By Rick Barrett of the Journal Sentinel

Posted: March 16, 2010 |(108) Comments

A rumor that Harley-Davidson Inc. is the target of a takeover bid – by a firm famous for buying and sometimes dismantling companies – drove the motorcycle maker’s shares to a three-month high Tuesday.

The stock closed at $28.35, up 7% in trading that was nearly six times higher than the normal volume.

Investors responded to speculation that Harley was a takeover target by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., a private equity firm whose $25 billion purchase of RJR Nabisco in 1989 inspired a book and the movie “Barbarians at the Gate.”

New York-based KKR would not comment on the Harley rumor that began with stock traders in Frankfurt, Germany.

Milwaukee-based Harley also declined to comment, but the rumor fueled a frenzy of media and analyst speculation.

Analysts say any company that is well run, and has a relatively cheap stock price, could be a takeover target. The company has been through a series of sharp staff reductions in the past year, including hundreds of jobs in the Milwaukee area.

“Just like many other stocks in the last few weeks, Harley-Davidson is popping on leveraged buyout rumors. On Friday it was Supervalu, today it is Harley,” Jud Pyle, chief investment strategist at Options Network, told Reuters news agency.

Traders in Frankfurt cited “market talk” as the source of the rumor.

“Anything is possible. We see significant value in Harley,” said analyst Craig Kennison with Robert W. Baird & Co.

“But we would be surprised if (Harley) management sold early in their turnaround strategy, near the bottom of a business cycle. There is too much value there, in my view,” Kennison added.

On the plus side

Harley could benefit from private ownership because the company would no longer be in the constant spotlight of investors and analysts worried about quarterly earnings and the share price.

The company was privately owned for more than 60 years before going public in 1965 and then returning to privately held ownership between 1981 and 1986.

It would take some pressure off Harley’s management as it makes long-term decisions, said analyst Ned Douthat with Ockham Research.

“And shareholders would not mind getting the buyout price. I don’t want to speculate on what that price would be, but I would think it would be a pretty good premium,” Douthat said.

In January, Harley reported its first quarterly loss in 16 years and predicted that 2010 would be a challenging year.

The world’s largest maker of heavyweight motorcycles has been reorganizing its business through layoffs, factory closures and shutting down Buell Motorcycles, a sport-bike division based in East Troy.

Harley said its restructuring will cost $430 million to $460 million but will lead to annual savings of $240 million to $260 million once finished.

There’s no doubt that private equity firms, which specialize in pumping money into struggling businesses and then profit when the businesses are sold or taken public, would be interested in Harley, according to analysts.

“The company’s sales are starting to stabilize, and Harley is one of the most iconic brands in manufacturing,” Douthat said.

The timing would make sense, given that Harley’s stock price is relatively low and the market for takeovers has heated up, said analyst Phil Gorham with Morningstar Research.

“I call it a Goldilocks period because everything is ‘just right.’ Equity is not too expensive,” and credit is coming back, Gorham said.

KKR’s history

KKR is a firm that pioneered leveraged buyouts in the 1980s. Over the years it has acquired an ownership stake in dozens of companies including RJR Nabisco, Eastman Kodak and Motel 6.

“We work closely with the management teams of our portfolio companies and stay deeply involved in the operations of our businesses, providing them with substantial resources over an average investment period of five years or more,” KKR says on its Web site.

“KKR and its portfolio companies are not distracted by the short-term perspectives of the financial markets. We are patient investors who focus on growing and improving businesses over the long term.”

It’s far from certain what KKR ownership would mean for Harley and its employees.

“You hear the horror stories of massive job cuts” when a private equity firm takes over a company, Douthat said.

“There’s not a whole lot of family atmosphere with a private equity firm. There can be entirely new management, and employees don’t know what to expect. That can cause a little bit of jitters for sure,” he said.

Harley could not be taken over without the approval of the company’s board of directors and shareholders.

“The most time-consuming part would be coming to terms on a price. Once that is done, it wouldn’t take more than a few months” to complete a sale, Gorham said.

Some analysts were skeptical of the KKR rumor, saying it did not make sense for Harley to sell now that it has a restructuring plan and has secured important funding for Harley-Davidson Financial Services, the company’s consumer lending division.

“You could have acquired the company at a much better price a year ago, but there was much less certainty then about how the economy was going to recover,” Douthat said.

Italian link

It could be that KKR is interested in Harley-Davidson Financial Services rather than the motorcycle manufacturer.

The firm also could be working on a deal to acquire MV Agusta, the Italian motorcycle company that Harley bought in 2008 and recently put back on the market.

“Harley-Davidson certainly has a lot of assets that could attract any number of bidders,” Douthat said.

Ockham Featured in The Globe and Mail

Coke dramatically changes financial profile

Investors may sacrifice fat margins and returns because of the reversal of Coke’s bottling strategy

David Milstead

Published on Friday, Feb. 26, 2010 6:55AM ESTLast updated on Sunday, Feb. 28, 2010 2:58PM EST

For a quarter century, Coke gave investors two distinct ways to buy into the fizz: Coca-Cola Co., (KO-N50.54-0.92-1.79%) which made soda concentrate and marketed the brand, and Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.,(CCE-N25.260.020.08%) the mega-bottler that took on the equipment-heavy task of bottling and distributing the end product.

Yesterday, Coca-Cola seemed to reversed strategy in a multibillion-dollar deal that will see it take over its North American bottling from Coca-Cola Enterprises – and dramatically change the company’s financial profile.

The bet, for Coca-Cola’s management, is that it can better manage its stable of products, particularly its growing non-carbonated segment, and cut costs, even if its margins never look the same again. In doing so, it mirrors a similar decision made last year by PepsiCo Inc. when it decided to bring two major bottlers in-house.

The transaction calls for Coca-Cola to transfer its bottling operations in Norway and Sweden to Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) for $822-million (U.S.). CCE also has an option to buy a majority stake in the German bottler of Coca-Cola.

Coca-Cola gets CCE’s North American operations, which distribute 100 per cent of Coke products in Canada and 75 per cent in the United States. It also gets $8.9-billion in CCE debt, plus other assets and liabilities including $580-million in pension obligations. It gives up its 34-per-cent stake in CCE.

CCE shareholders will get one share in a new company that focuses on Europe, plus a one-time $10 payment financed through new CCE debt.

Coca-Cola Enterprises represents a plan Coca-Cola hatched in the 1980s to create a big, consolidated bottling company that would be easy to work with – yet would be a separate company, in part to segregate the capital-intensive bottling business from Coke’s balance sheets.

The distinction is clear from a peek at the two companies’ financials. Over the last five years, Coca-Cola has consistently posted gross margins in the 60-per-cent range and net income margins in the 20-per-cent range. Return on assets (ROA) has ranged from 12 per cent to nearly 14 per cent, and return on capital has ranged from 16 per cent to nearly 19 per cent.

At Coca-Cola Enterprises in the last half decade, gross margins have been nearly 40 per cent. Net income margin has been roughly 3 per cent – when the company has been profitable, which it has not always been. ROA and return on capital have been in the mid-single digits.

Splitting the businesses in the 1980s was a boon to shareholders of Coca-Cola. Analysts at Ockham Research said yesterday that since CCE began trading in late 1986 it has returned 249 per cent, while Coca-Cola jumped 1,113 per cent over the same period. Annually, CCE posted 4-per-cent gains compared with 11 per cent for Coca-Cola and 5.5 per cent for the Standard & Poor’s 500, Ockham said.

Bottling “is not nearly as good as the syrup business, because you are taking on a lot of fixed assets in the process,” Donald Yacktman, founder of Yacktman Asset Management Co., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “They are taking on a business with lower inherent returns for more control and cost savings.”

Coca-Cola was not a pure syrup play – it owned the Norway and Sweden operations it’s transferring to CCE. Coke says its recent practice has been to take ownership stakes in its bottlers in underperforming markets to help boost the business through its expertise. Acquisitions in 2007 and 2008, Coke said, helped push revenue from bottling operations up to 27 per cent of net operating revenue in 2008.

In taking on CCE’s North American operations, however, Coke is assuming the bulk of that lower-margin, higher-asset business. At $15.1-billion, North American revenue represents more than two-thirds of CCE’s $21.6-billion in sales.

To the researchers at Ockham, it looks like “Coke is trading growth for greater flexibility to address modern challenges.”

Coca-Cola chief executive officer Muhtar Kent said yesterday that the transaction will “accelerate growth and drive long-term profitability.” But it looks like it won’t come with the same margins and returns.

- Special to The Globe and Mail, with files from Bloomberg News

Ockham in Business Week

Investing in Technology M&A

Posted on September 10, 2009

The conventional wisdom used to be that investors should run from technology companies that did too many mergers and acquisitions. But over the past decade, a group of top-tier tech wheelers and dealers has emerged that increased shareholder value with their acquisitiveness. Companies such as Oracle, IBM, and Adobe Systems have successfully used acquisitions to get into new lines of business, 0910_hands.jpgexpand their customer bases, and grab hot new technologies. Still, some companies consistently overpay or buy yesterday’s big breakthrough. An informal survey of tech fund managers, analysts, and consultants yielded a list of companies investors will likely favor on more deal news—and a few they may shun.

Related Story: Oracle Has Customers Over a Barrel
Video: Investing in Tech Giants

Once mainly a hardware vendor of computers large and small, IBM (IBM) has used a sharp acquisition strategy to expand into software and information technology services. After a string of successful additions, including performance management software maker Cognos, and Rational, which makes tools to help programmers write code, IBM announced in July it would pay $1.2 billion for SPSS, a leading developer of software to analyze statistical data. “All the software acquisitions have helped shift the company toward higher margins and faster growing areas,” says Ken Allen, manager of the T. Rowe Price Science & Technology Fund. IBM was his 15th largest holding as of June 30.

Salesforce.com (CRM) has always been a poster child for the move from desktop applications to Web-based products. As more computing and data storage have migrated to online servers—the clouds in “cloud computing”—Salesforce has used a series of small acquisitions to keep pace. In 2006 it grabbed wireless software developer Sendia, for example, helping make all its offerings available over mobile phones. “They’re doing a good job of pushing each acquisition into their services,” says Jeff Kaplan, founder of tech consulting firm Thinkstrategies.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) is the king of bolt-on acquisitions. In a typical deal, Cisco purchases a much smaller company, such as voice-over-Internet gearmaker Sipura, which it bought for $68 million in 2005. Then it uses its manufacturing smarts and sales force to promote cutting-edge products that often fit into existing lines of business. Cisco also uses purchases to diversify and get into new businesses. This year it added Pure Digital Technologies, maker of the Flip digital video camera. “Their goal is to become a larger player in the consumer electronics and networking business,” says Ned Douthat, an analyst at Ockham Research in Roswell, Ga.

One company that Richard Parower, manager of the Seligman Global Technology Fund, says never quite makes the right deal at the right price is Microsoft (MSFT)—”the one glaring example of [tech companies] that can’t do acquisitions.” For example, Microsoft paid more than $6 billion for Web advertising company aQuantive, a price several investors say was far too high. And its on-again, off-again talks to buy Yahoo! have shareholders worried about another surprise deal. T. Rowe’s Allen thinks “investors are still discounting the probability they’ll do something so risky again.” A Microsoft spokesman says: “We buy where it makes sense, where we can accelerate growth, and generally we buy companies early in their history.”

Another loser, say investors, is mobile-phone manufacturer Motorola (MOT). “Remember Symbol Technologies and Good Technology, both acquired by Motorola?” says Eric Jackson, founder of Naples (Fla.) money manager Ironfire Capital. “They have disappeared off the face of the tech landscape.” Motorola says it’s pleased with both deals and notes that Good’s programmers are central to building products that use Google’s Android mobile-phone software.

By Aaron Pressman

Ockham: Special Feature in Forbes

Ockham was selected to produce “5 Blue Chips Fit for Ben Graham” for Forbes.com in September of 2009.  To read the full report click on the link below:

Forbes 5 Ben Graham Stocks

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